| 金利レンジ | 確率 | 前日比 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00–4.25%+25bp | 8.0% | -4.0pt | |
| 3.75–4.00%現状維持 | 92.0% | +4.0pt |
今日からこの会合までの全会合の結果を合わせた、会合後に政策金利がそのレンジにある確率です。
| 会合 | 利上げ | 据え置き | 利下げ | 予想変化 | 予想金利 | 最も可能性が高いレンジ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026年10月28日（水） | 8.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% | +2.0bp | 3.900% | 3.75–4.00%（92.0%） |
| 2026年12月9日（水） | 86.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | +21.5bp | 4.115% | 4.00–4.25%（80.2%） |
利上げ・据え置き・利下げは、その会合1回での確率です。年内の累積は「レンジ別の確率」で確認してください。
| 日付 | 利上げ | 据え置き | 利下げ | 予想変化 | 予想金利 | 実効FF金利 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 8.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% | +2.0bp | 3.900% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-26 | 12.0% | 88.0% | 0.0% | +3.0bp | 3.910% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-23 | 10.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | +2.5bp | 3.905% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-22 | 6.0% | 94.0% | 0.0% | +1.5bp | 3.895% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-21 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 0.0% | +4.0bp | 3.920% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-20 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 0.0% | +4.0bp | 3.920% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-19 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | +4.5bp | 3.925% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-16 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 0.0% | +4.0bp | 3.920% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-15 | 28.0% | 72.0% | 0.0% | +7.0bp | 3.950% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-14 | 34.0% | 66.0% | 0.0% | +8.5bp | 3.965% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-13 | 22.0% | 78.0% | 0.0% | +5.5bp | 3.935% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-12 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.0% | +5.0bp | 3.930% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-09 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | +4.5bp | 3.925% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-08 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | +4.5bp | 3.925% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-07 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | +4.5bp | 3.925% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-06 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.0% | +5.0bp | 3.930% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-05 | 22.0% | 78.0% | 0.0% | +5.5bp | 3.935% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-02 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.0% | +5.0bp | 3.930% | 3.88% |
| 2026-10-01 | 24.0% | 76.0% | 0.0% | +6.0bp | 3.940% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-30 | 38.0% | 62.0% | 0.0% | +9.5bp | 3.975% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | +12.5bp | 4.005% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-28 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | +17.5bp | 4.055% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-25 | 62.0% | 38.0% | 0.0% | +15.5bp | 4.035% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-24 | 68.0% | 32.0% | 0.0% | +17.0bp | 4.050% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-23 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | +17.5bp | 4.055% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | +14.0bp | 4.020% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-21 | 58.0% | 42.0% | 0.0% | +14.5bp | 4.025% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-18 | 58.0% | 42.0% | 0.0% | +14.5bp | 4.025% | 3.88% |
| 2026-09-17 | 56.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | +14.0bp | 4.020% | 3.88% |
※ CME FedWatchと同じ考え方で、FF金利先物の価格から計算した確率です。先物価格の刻みが粗いため、本家FedWatchの表示と数ポイント異なることがあります。
※ 投資判断の根拠とする場合はご自身の責任でご確認ください。